by BearnBird » November 13th 2006 4:50 pm
Was this a PBS Documentary called "The Day the Music Died?"
Concerning CD's, DVD's, HD-DVD's, I'd say these and even other physical storage devices will be available for the next 100 years or so. This generation is the beginning of numerous others which will provide technology as an integral part of their lives. This generation has only seen the beginning of such with the iPods, cell phones, and HDTV's finally becoming available to consumers. Now if you want to know how many years until the formats are done away with compeltely, I don't think that will ever happen. As widely sold, no, but available yes. I know that my parents still use the VCR from time to time to tape shows simply because they do not want to use the DVR they have., and their parents still listen to AM 630 reguarly in their dining room. You can still buy blank tapes and such at Wal-Mart. Some recording artists even release their new cd's such as John Mayer did on his limited Vinyl run of Continuum. I just think It would be hard to completely dissolve a generation of consumers from a product which they have made apart of their life. As short as it has been with DVD's for example, I don't see Blu-Ray or HD-DVD's making a large consumer impact until at least Q2 2008.
I like the point that hypertext makes about removing physical retailers as well, however I disagree. As long as there is a product or service to be sold to consumers, there will be outlets where products and services will be described, observed, and made available for interaction. Take the Magnolia Home Theater's at Best Buy or the Apple Store. While these devices will be able to play the digital media, consumers still need a way to preview what they are buying. Not only that, but they have to have the devices to experience their digital media as well. How many times have you bought a couch or sofa by simply watching the 9th annual Furniture World Superstore Warehouse sale? Or made up your final decision on a new LCD TV without taking at least a few trips to Best Buy to watch DiscoveryHD on the unit with your own eyes? Retailers and outlets will always be on streetcorners.
I have however seen some recent filings from Toshiba and Phillips about computer accessories which allow you to insert your hand into them. You then interact with and feel the shape and texture of objects you are viewing in an online marketplace. This is probably as far off as home hologram theaters and Wallpaper-able HD screens, but you can always hope.